Saddam Hussein Captured
On December 14, the big news was that Saddam Hussein had been captured the evening before at about 8:30 pm local time in Iraq. The formal prediction period was set to begin at 8:00 to include a little time leading up to the capture, and then several hours, until 03:00 on the 14th, to allow the word to spread (the GMT times are from 17:00 to 24:00 on the 13th.)
The result is essentially flat, with no trend over this period of seven hours, except for a brief but visually striking excursion just after the capture. The Chisquare is 25160 on 25200 df, for p = 0.570.
An exploration to see whether the announcement and consequent full-bore media coverage might be correlated with GCP network structure shows no substantial indication of a response. The following figure comprises the data for the next day, with President Bush's speech at 07:00 marked. The data in this graph are contiguous with the formal sequence shown in the figure above.