Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize
From a letter to the New York Times:
The GCP event was set for an 8 hour period beginning about an hour before the announcement, which was around 5 am ET (09:00 GMT), to cover a little anticipation and a substantial time for the news to spread especially in the US. The result shows Chisquare 28983.463 on 28000 for a probability of 0.222, and Z = 0.766, a modest positive deviation.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.