This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 19981999, a total of 15 years.
The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is
not significant at p=0.329 with Z=0.444
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.570 and Z=0.176, in accord with the prediction.
A simpler calculation of the variance deviation during the 10minute period
surrounding midnight yields an estimated Z of 0.585.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite over the 15 years is shown
for the two measures.
The meanshift is slightly positive, with p = 0.314 and Z = 0.484.
But the variance decrease prediction calculated by permutation analysis
is more strongly supported with a pvalue of 0.038 and Z=1.778.
A simpler calculation addresses the implicit prediction that the
variance will be low around midnight. If we look at midnight +/ 5
minutes, the deviation is similar, with a slightly larger estimated
Zscore of 1.890.
