From bethke@execpc.com Thu Dec 14 10:18:19 2000 Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 17:34:58 -0600 From: Paul Bethke To: "Roger D. Nelson (E-mail)" Subject: Wow! [ The following text is in the "iso-8859-1" character set. ] [ Your display is set for the "US-ASCII" character set. ] [ Some characters may be displayed incorrectly. ] Roger, I am so excited! I did some analysis on the GCP data from last night. I did my "gauss-curve-fit" chisquare analysis on the data and saw abnormally narrow peaks. The only explanation I could determine was that there must have been peaks from different eggs close to each other in time, and their overlap produced these strangely thin peaks. So I did the same analysis by individual eggs - !!! I could hardly believe what I found. There are at least 6 separate EGGs peaking at the same time! I am including the graph for you to see. I have never seen them coincide like this. What you are seeing: The data is 3 hours of EGG data starting at 0200 UTC. The level is the chisquare value. (BTW the P=0.05 value for 201 df is 233.9943) The width of the peaks is basically the window size, or how many seconds make up the window over which the chisquare is calculated. (So the actual data causing the large differences is at the center of the "peak"). I have yet to identify which EGGs are involved to see if that tells us more. I will tell you that I had been skeptical of this analysis method from looking at some of the "case" data in the prediction chart - as they seemed to only be producing spurious bits of interesting data. But this is pretty interesting... I have more work to do on it, but I wanted to share what I have with you. Please let me know what you think...Paul [ Part 2, Image/GIF 28KB. ] [ Unable to print this part. ]