Global Orgasm for Peace 2008
The third annual Global Orgasm for Peace day was held on Dec 21, 2008. and we decided again to make a formal prediction for it as we did in 2006. Here is the description and invitation:
We know that single events don't yield interpretable outcomes because the signal to noise ratio in the GCP data is much too small. The average effect size suggests that we need two dozen or more events of a similar nature to support reliable interpretations. Nevertheless this is an interesting event in principle, so we will are accumulating a suitable database.
Although the Global-O organizers were clear that the focal time would be 11:00 to 13:00 GMT, the formal event time was specified as the whole day of the 24th, in UTC time. The Stouffer Z analysis shows a positive outcome, but it is a mild trend, with a terminal Z-score of about 0.6 (twice the average Z for the full database), and probability p = 0.262.
The event time is marked in the graph, and inspection shows that if we looked only at this segment, we would see a small positive outcome. As was the case in previous years, the picture has a feeling of promise, but the low signal to noise ratio makes it impossible to determine whether the trend is evidence of a "signal". On a more positive note, this is a similar pattern to the previous years, and it has approximately the same effect size. We asked last year "will this pattern continue?" and the record thus far suggests we should stay tuned.