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On 18 July, Dr Barry Warmkessel asked "Did your EGGs produce
anything abnormal on 18 June 2008 +/ 2 days?"
I responded that our research protocol requires identifying
an event we think
may engage large numbers of people and specifying beginning
and end times plus the statistical measure to be used, then
extracting the data and performing an analysis. We don't
scan the data for unusual or abnormal activity.
He explained that "Our work involves formation of Avatars
like Gandhi." His thought was that such events should
stimulate the global consciousness, and hoped we would do an
analysis. I decided to go ahead with an exploratory look,
at the 18th of June. The result is shown in the first graph,
which I interpret as normal data -- no indication of any
unusual trends or sharp deviations suggesting a network
response.
However, though this might seem disapointing,
we know that the
S/N ratio is small, so that single event analyses cannot be
reliably interpreted. The average effect size is in the
range of 0.3 to 0.5 standard deviations, and this literally
means that we need to have data from 20 or 30 events to
accumulate enough statistical power. So -- there is no case
to be made with the examination of just one event, whether
in a positive or null direction. Put another way,
the GCP data cannot be expected
to determine whether or not something like the descent or
manifestation of an Avatar might have occurred.
With more precise information, Dr. Warmkessel requested a
second analysis. "Putting all the data together, the best
case we have for a
manifestation that occurred more than 2000 years ago is 16 June 2008
8 AM EST = 13 GMT. While the data on this kind of thing is sparse to
say the least, we can make a case 'as such' for this date with
multisource information."
I proceeded with a second exploratory analysis using this date and
time. Again there is no clear
trend in the data, nor is there an appearance of unusual
activity around 1300 +/- one hour, which is shown in the graph.
However, it is worth noting that the 24 hour day does show a
modest deviation, with a terminal value of Z = 0.58, which
is in the range of the composite average of the full
database of formal GCP analyses.
Again, we must keep in mind the caveats. It is possible that
the GCP network is not responsive to events of the sort
indicated, but even if it were, the average effect size is
too small to expect confirmation or rejection of the
hypothesis without a dozen or more events of a similar kind.
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