Train Crash, Turkey, Jul 22 2004

Via email, I received a prediction from Don Watson that the train crash in Turkey, Jul 22 2004 should have an impression on the GCP network. Initial reports placed the death toll at 139, but officials later lowered the number of fatalities. A day later, CNN reported "At least 36 people were killed and 43 injured Thursday when a high-speed train derailed in northwestern Turkey, according to a Turkish health ministry official."

Don wrote that the reason for his prediction isn't the number of folks killed, but the magnitude of the hullabaloo--and there's been a lot of that, mainly because this was a brand new state-of-the-art train running on old, worn out tracks.

In any case it was set as a formal prediction, with the time specified as 07:15 to 11:15 am local time (04:15 to 08:15 GMT). The crash was at 07:45. The result is a strong backward trend, with Chisquare of 14288 on 14400 df, p=0.745 and Z=0.657.

Train Crash, Turkey, Jul 22

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