President Obama's 2012 State of the Union

The 2012 State of the Union Address was given by United States President Barack Obama on January 24, 2012, to a joint session of Congress. It was aired on all the major networks starting at 9 PM ET. It was Obama's third State of the Union Address.

The speech was delivered on the floor of the United States House of Representatives in the United States Capitol. Among the topics that Obama covered in his speech were the need for fair taxation, saying the rich should not pay lower rates than the middle class. Attention was given to the end of the Iraq war and progress in Afghanistan. Because this is an election year, the speech had many points that related to the ongoing campaigns.

This is another in a series of major public speeches by Obama, beginning during the campaign in 2008. They have generally correlated with substantial deviations, and while this speech was strong and forceful, it was pretty much business-like, it shows no notable trend.

The GCP event was set for 9:00 pm ET to 11:00, and the speech started at about 9:12 (marked in the figure below). The outcome is 7185.901 on 7200 df, for p = 0.545 and Z = -0.112.

Obama's 2012 State of the Union

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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