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Shipwreck Near Lampedusa Island

From the Huffington Post -- Sicily Shipwreck: Dozens Of African Migrants Die Off Coast Of Lampedusa, By NICOLE WINFIELD

ROME -- ROME (AP) — It was the third ship of the night to head toward the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa packed to the brim with migrants seeking a better life in Europe. The first, filled with Syrians, arrived about 10 p.m. The second, carrying Eritreans, slipped in at 2 a.m.

The third never reached the shore.

At least 114 people died and scores more were missing late Thursday after a crowded fishing boat carrying African migrants from Tripoli caught fire, flipped over and sank, Italian officials said.

In the dark of night, hundreds of men, women and children who didn't know how to swim were flung into the sea about a half-mile from Lampedusa. Between 450 and 500 people were believed to be on board; health commissioner Antonio Candela said only 159 were rescued.

Probably at least 200 or 300 drowned. The Huff Post story reads like the tragedy must have happened in the early morning hours of Thursday, Oct 3. Hans Wendt supplied more precise timing, though it is still approximate: 0500 to 0600 Central European time (0400 to 0500 UTC). The GCP event was set for 6 hours beginning at 0400 UTC. The result is Chisquare 21737.790 on 21601 df, for p = 0.255 and Z = 0.660.

Shipwreck Near
Lampedusa Island

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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