Roll Your Own Blackout
The Roll Your Own Blackout event was suggested for prediction by several people, including Greg Nelson, Elissa Hoeger, Rick Berger, Sharon Joy Kleitsch. We agreed that participation in the voluntary blackout on June 21, 2001 might have an effect on the EGG network. It was advertized widely via email networking, and seemed likely to attract considerable attention.
ROLL YOUR OWN BLACK OUT
Because the time period of three hours precluded signal averaging of independent segments, the decision was made to consider this as a simple day-long analysis. The 24 hour period begins at 19:00 somewhere in Asia, and ends at 22:00 Pacific time. Specifically, this is 05:00 GMT on 21st to 05:00 GMT on the 22nd.
The result was a moderate backward trend, as shown in the first figure, with Chisquare of 86136 on 86400 df and p = 0.737.
This was probably a US-centric event, with far more people in the US being aware of it through the Web publicity. An exploration was therefore made using data only from the US eggs, and for the time that was specified in the US across its time zones. The following figure shows the result, which is little different from that of the whole network. The Chisquare is 21562 on 21600 df, and p = 0.571.