New Year's 2006-2007

This year we revert to the longstanding predictions of a meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New Year since 1998-1999, a total of 9 years. The probability for the squared Stouffer Z is a modest p=0.271, with Z=0.610. For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of 10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest probability of 0.281 and Z=0.580 for 2006-2007.

New Year's

In addition to the two figures above representing the results for the current year, a composite over the 9 years is also shown. The meanshift is nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original prediction. The variance decrease prediction is supported with a p-value of 0.0286.

New Year's

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